I think Australia should at least be mentioned in the original screenplay category.

Which three are you seeing next??

I saw Slumdog and really liked it. I also think that Dev Patel (SP??)has a shot, but isn’t he the lead? I think I will be seeing Milk and Benjamin Button on Sunday.

Woo Hoo. Another “The Contenders” article!!! I love double B!!

OK, I just finished reading the whole article. And I think your right on the money with those predictions. The only thing I would disagree about is Heath Ledger ranked #1, I just don’t see this happening, I think more people are going to talk about him winning it and then come February, It will just be a huge disappointment. The academy isn’t really a fan for Superhero movies. I just don’t see him winning. I think your #2 guy, Josh Brolin (who continues to take great roles) has a better chance.

I pretty much agree with the rest of your list. And I can’t wait to see Revolutionary Road, it looks very good, i must have seen the trailer like 50 times in the last 2 weeks.Let’s hope it lives up to the hype.

So that’s it, Thank you and Happy Thanksgiving.

I think most of these are real solid…I still have faith in Jenkins being this year’s Julie Christie…and also I have a suspicion that Andrew Stanton will get some love either in screenplay or director for his visionary film…
Your supporting actress predictions are perfect

In some areas I believe you have some accuracy, but others times I think you’re way out of water. You must be insane if you think they’ll go for ‘Slumdog Millionaire the way you’ve depicted, it’ll only get a screenplay nomination. I loved the ‘The Dark Knight’, but blockbusters have to open at the end of the year to have as much buzz as ur giving it, only Ledger will get a nod. You must have insider knowledge on Benjamin Button, because I have a feeling it’ll be a box office and critical disappointment. Why no nod for Kate Winslet in ‘The Reader’, is it possible for her to get two nods in the same category?

@Michael H.: I think you are the one who must be insane Michael H. Pretty much every Oscar pundit i have seen has given Slumdog Millionaire and Benjamin Button as nominees. I’m not sure about The Dark Knight, but it will have two big advantages, firstly, being re-released and secondly, they are going to campaign like crazy for it (they sure as hell have the money for it) and campaigning makes a hell of a difference.
On another topic, I hope Fincher, Nolan and Boyle all get director noms, they’re some of my favourite contemporary directors.

i think u got the leading actress category all wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1.Meryl Streep(Doubt)
2.Cate Blanchett(Benjamin Button)
3.Anne Hathaway(Rachel getting married)
4.Angelina Jolie(Changelling)
5.Sally Hawkins(Happy-Go-Lucky)

And also for best picture it could be better

1.Benjamin Button
2.Milk
3.Slumdog Millionaire
4.Doubt
5.Dark Knight

I really think that you are forgetting Slumdog Millionaire for best picture. It’s a STRONG Oscar contender, the critics love it, feel good story and is almost a guarantee.
I also think Dev Patel for best supporting actor is highly unlikely as he is the lead. There is a high chance Danny Boyle for best director will be nominated.

Other than the Slumdog snub the pics are great!

Okay I am sorry about that previous post obviously I wasn’t paying much attention

Sorry again.

@R.b: I have Slumdog as my #3 choice… How is that a snub?

@beautifulm: That would be Button, Doubt and Revolutionary Road… The week after that is Seven Pounds, The Reader and Valkyrie

I truly think that ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ won’t get a best picture nomination, it’ll be overwhelmed by crowd pleasers lie ‘the wrestler’ and ‘gran torino’,which will be fresh in the academy’s mind. It’ll be this years into the wild

@Michael H.: I think Gran Torino is going to be a bust. I wasn’t very pleased after watching the trailer, except of Eastwood’s acting of course. If Eastwood doesn’t get a best actor nob, i doubt it will get any major nomination.

As for “The Wrestler”, I can see that getting nominated for Best Picture. But I think “Slumdog” has a better chance.

@Jerzey Jon: So far only one person has seen it and commented on it and that is Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly and he thinks Eastwood may be a lock for actor. On top of that Eastwood has never won a Best Actor Oscar and sentimentality always plays a role. You can read his piece here.

Why is DiCaprio #5? He’s safer than Eastwood and Langella.

@Brad Brevet: Will do, thanks Double B.

@Laurel: Wooo, i wouldn’t go that far, Langella is a lock of a nob and one can argue Eastwood as well.

you gave the dark knight a higher rating than milk
shoudnt it be ahead?
I HOPE DARK KNIGHT TAKES HOME A BEST PICTURE NOM

You are completely overrating Rachel Getting Married - such a puny film with such paltry box office has no chance whatsoever at director, best pic, or screenplay. Also, Woody Allen should be in first place for original screenplay and should be considered for director.

@Brad Brevet: I was just curious, how do u know “button” will be so good if u haven’t seen it yet? Same with other movies u have not seen?

@mikey cylwer: Hey Mikey, it’s just predictions based on buzz and my personal opinion. As I see the movies and as others see the movies and talk about them my predictions change.

Basically, that’s the reason I do this weekly and is what makes the article fun to do. You get to see and predict with me as buzz on the films change and as you get to see them as well.

Has the studio decided that they’re going for best supporting for Heath Ledger?
I thought everyone already decided he’d be the guy to win for best actor. Someone’s getting pressure from Brad Pitt and his wife. She would seem to know how to get noms.

@frankregan: That was just online rumor and speculation, he has always been considered supporting.

I think the best actress is going to be
1. Meryl Streep, top pick I think she’ll win it. knock on wood
2. Cate Blanchett
3. Anne Hathaway
4. Sally Hawkins
5. Nicole Kidman
angelina jolie maybe.

@Michael: He might have liked The Dark Knight more, but he isn’t making a list of movies that he likes the most, he is making a list of predictions of what the academy will like the most.

For Example, One of his favorite movies this year, is Tropic Thunder. He didn’t place Tropic Thunder under Best picture, because this isn’t about what he likes it’s about what the voters for the academy awards will like.

Understood?

why no love for Wall-E? in your review you said it “certainly” would be nominated for best picture. it’s not even in your bubble list.

now that disney has launched a major campaign for it’s getting the nod for best picture, i think it has a great chance.

I have never made a comment here before but after seeing three movies yesterday, three today, and hopefully another two tomorrow, I am getting into the groove. I haven’t read all the comments, but I thought ‘rachel getting married’ was totally overrated, despite a brilliant performance by Anne Hathaway. If Jenny Lumet was in film school and not the daughter of Sidney, the script would get a D+. Also disappointing was ‘Happy-Go-Lucky,’ which despite its limited appeal, was really about not very much. This woman is in charge of 32 kids and can’t even manage her own life? I was so let down especially since Mike Leigh gave us the beautiful ‘Vera Drake’ and the brilliant ‘Secrets and Lies.’ I don’t think it has much of a chance for anything unless the critics love spotted faces, ugly decor, and bad British dental work.

‘Australia’ is beautifully filmed and the production design is gorgeous, but there’s no there there. Nicole Kidman is playing another mannequin and can’t hold the screen for 2.7 hours. Baz Luhrman would annoy even the Pope, so I give it shots in costume design, production design, and cinematography categories only.

The real surprise for me this weekend, so far, was ‘Milk.’ I think it vaults to the very top of the heap, especially since Oscar voters love biopics and for most people this will be a new story. Sean Penn seems to me a lock for at least a nomination and I think a second Oscar. Supporting cast is also excellent and could add another two or three nominations: James Franco, Josh Brolin, and Emile Hirsch. Should also be seen in the best picture, original script, direction, score, cinematography, costume design, and production design categories. I know everybody is saying ‘Benjamin Button,’ but I think this is the one to beat.

Tomorrow it’s ‘I’ve Loved You So Long’ and James Bond, who I am falling out of love with. I’ll report later.

One last thing: you say on Eastwood’s chances of getting a best actor nod that sentimentality always plays a role. It usually does in the *supporting* categories, but not for the leads, where real merit usually wins out. Clint has four Oscars already, ‘Changeling’ is a *major* faux pas, and ‘Gran Torino’ looks like a very angry movie. I think it will be ignored.

I think Edward Norton and John Voight deserve a nomination for their perfomances in Pride and Glory

@shaq: No Way!!

Not Happening.

@dylan: Dylan, I would love to add WALL-E there, but these are predictions, not what I wish were the case and it appears if it is an animated film it doesn’t stand a chance in Best Picture now that Best Animated has been added. Sorta sad considering I still believe WALL-E deserves a nom. It will definitely get end of year kudos from me personally, as if that means much. :)

@Chucknyc: Hey Chuck, nice to have you around and I couldn’t agree with you more about Rachel Getting Married. However, I was slightly nicer giving it a C-. But I do disagree with you on Happy-Go-Lucky. I did a piece on that one a while back which you can read right here. I would be curious to hear your thoughts on it.

Question about The Contenders:

Why do you still have “Body of Lies”, “Miracle at St. Anna”, “Appaloosa”, and other non-contenders still in The Contenders section”?

i agree with what you said, brad, but don’t you think that if a foreign language film can be nominated for best picture regardless of having its own category then an animated film can do the same?

Best Actor - Mickey Rourke - Absolutely.

Haven’t seen quite a few of these titles, since they wont reach OZ for a month or more (where I live now). But… I’m pretty certain that “Slumdog Millionaire” (from what I read about it (filmed in India, etc) will be a best Foreign picture nominee (unless that was already stated and I missed it — I’m new to the site). Also: I don’t think “The Dark Knight” will make into the Best Picture category (if it does, I’ll be surprised - but comicbook derived work usually gets relegated to the bumper — even the backseat is to good for such in the eyes of the award givers). And I kind of got the feeling that Kate Winslet was more of a contender for best actress/best supporting actress. Finally, thought I read somewhere that Will Smith and the movie “Seven Pounds” were in the running, too.

@K.C.: Agreed. I think he’s a lock for best actor.

@Dt Shindler: Slumdog Millionaire is spoken in American English, i doubt that it could be a nominee for the Oscar for best foreign language picture.

Hey Jon, whoops. When I noticed the language for the film (on IMDB) listed as english/hindi, I assumed that there was an equal amount of Hindi of spoken in the flick. In that case, neeeevermind! (But I still think “Dark Knight” will be dissed for the pic category while Ledger will get the supporting actor nom — and very likely win).

This are my predictions:
Best Picture:
Doubt
Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire (this one might be for The Dark Knight, instead).

Best Actor
Brad Pitt - Benjamin Button
Sean Penn - Milk
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett - Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Maried
Kristin Scott Thomas - Il y a longtemps que je t’aime

Best Supporting Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
James Franco - Milk
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Josh Brolin - Milk
Charlie McDermott - Frozen River

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Amy Adams - Doubt
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button